Pick a border. Whichever you’re closest to. North or South. Look into making a plan. Crossing the border illegally is an option. Probably a better option if a draft is called. A charge and claiming asylum is preferable to being caught on the wrong side of a checkpoint. Fleeing war is a valid asylum claim pretty much anywhere on the planet.

Military recruitment has been all time low year over year for a decade or more. And Iran isn’t Iraq. That is a modern professional military armed and trained just as well as our guys. This won’t be a professional military vs an insurgency armed with homemade bombs and soviet era relics. If you want a peek at the attrition rates this war will have go look at the numbers coming out of the Ukraine war. On both sides.

Back when Bush’s War on Peace kicked off my dad made plans to get me out. He looked up an old war buddy he was in Vietnam with who lived in Canada. They planned to smuggle me across the woodlands. Not through an official crossing. Thankfully that plan never needed to be used. But he was serious. And I remember how serious he was.

  • Phoenixz@lemmy.ca
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    1 day ago

    On Iran being a bigger enemy, let’s be very clear:

    If the US invades Iran it will walk straight over it as if the Iranian army wasn’t even there. This goes for pretty much every other country too, maybe China excluded. The US armed forces are extremely much more powerful than even the next 5 countries combined. Whatever the US wants to invade, it will invade and there is nothing any single country can do to stop it.

    Having said that

    The US is the absolute worst at keeping invaded territory. It sucked at Iraq, it laughably sucked in Afghanistan where it couldn’t keep the cou try against the equivalent of a bunch of goat herders. Of course it ended up killing hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians trying to do these things, but it failed.

    If and when the US invades Iran, be sure about it that it WILL fail. It will costs the lives of hundreds of thousands of innocent Iranian civilians, men, women, children, especially if Israel is involved, but do understand: They WILL fail.

    They won’t fail because Iran is a country of fighters or anything like that. They will fail because Iran, like any other country, will keep resisting and they will keep stabbing the US like a cloud of hornets and once US soldiers have come home horizontally by the thousands, Cheeto will have to back down or face a guillotine himself. Something similar will happen with the Israeli army. They kick ass against stone throwing children and I’m sure that their armed forces will even be able to defeat the Iranian army by themselves but staying there? Keeping the newly conquered territories as a promised land? Good luck and prepare for a lot more dead Israelis.

    If any of them are dumb enough to use nukes it will be game over for them. If Israel or the US would use nukes then the world would not forgive or forget. During WWII there was a somewhat justified reason and one can argue that the nukes, in the end, caused less death and destruction than a conventional invasion of Japan would have done (same for a siege, hundreds of thousands, if not millions would have died from disease and starvation before they would have surrendered) but this is not an excuse either the US or Israel will have.

    So far the world sorta supports Israel Ina genocide (I can’t even understand that I have to write that) but once nukes go off, that is done, that is gone. Nukes go off and nowhere in the world you will be able to tell people that you’re American or Jewish anymore.

    • gazter@aussie.zone
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      10 hours ago

      You raise some good points.

      I’m not so sure about the US just walking straight over the Iranian army, though. I’m no history buff, but from my brief research the US has not had a great record of winning wars in the last fifty years without massive support from other countries. I highly doubt that the international community will support the US invading Iran in the same way that it did Iraq or Libya.

    • Pieisawesome@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      1 day ago

      WWII was whitewashed.

      Japan was in the process of surrendering and the US knew it. They dropped the bombs in order to intimidate the soviets and say that the US won the war.

    • corsicanguppy@lemmy.ca
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      1 day ago

      During WWII there was a somewhat justified reason and one can argue that the nukes, in the end, caused less death and destruction than

      At this point, it’s important to remember that the two bombs were dropped after the US had learned Japan intended to surrender.

      With that data point in mind, recalculate for war crimes.

        • Hacksaw@lemmy.ca
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          15 hours ago

          en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surrender_of_Japan

          You can read Soviet Union negotiation attempt and Potsdam.

          Basically Japan was ready to surrender months before the war, disarm, and pay reparations. The Japanese wanted to surrender everything but keep their government and Emperor. The allies knew this right away through interception of communication to the Soviets. But that “wasn’t good enough” somehow.

          So the Americans nuked them twice, then proceeded to bomb the shit out of the Japanese. The Americans were less than a day away from nuking Tokyo over the concept of “unconditional surrender”, which again, the main difference between the Allies and the Japanese was that the Japanese wanted to maintain their government.

          Anyways eventually they accept “unconditional surrender” and the fucking Americans let them keep the damn government anyways. Like it’s absolutely baffling how insane this was. The only thing like it is the ro-sham-bo scene in South Park.

          en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupation_of_Japan

          However, unlike in Germany, the Allies never assumed direct control over Japan’s civil administration. In the immediate aftermath of Japan’s military surrender, the country’s government continued to formally operate under the provisions of the Meiji Constitution.

          Now there is an argument that the group of people working on surrender within the Japanese government may not have succeeded. Maybe, without the atomic bomb, a coup would have happened and the side willing to surrender would have lost. It’s hard to think of what would have been. It is still historically very clear that we all prioritised warfare over diplomacy and it has likely caused hundreds of thousands of needless deaths.

          Not that anyone has learned from that considering Trump is yammering about “unconditional surrender” all over again.