Four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump has been successfully selling white Christian nostalgia, racism and xenophobia to his base. However, the Public Religion Research Institute’s massive poll of 6,616 participants suggests that what works with his base might pose an insurmountable problem with Gen Z teens and Gen Z adults (who are younger than 25).
Demographically, this cohort of voters bears little resemblance to Trump’s older, whiter, more religious followers. “In addition to being the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in our nation’s history, Gen Z adults also identify as LGBTQ at much higher rates than older Americans,” the PRRI poll found. “Like millennials, Gen Zers are also less likely than older generations to affiliate with an established religion.”
Those characteristics suggest Gen Z will favor a progressive message that incorporates diversity and opposes government imposition of religious views. Indeed, “Gen Z adults (21%) are less likely than all generational groups except millennials (21%) to identify as Republican.” Though 36 percent of Gen Z adults identify as Democrats, their teenage counterparts are more likely to be independents (51 percent) than older generations.
This is an evergreen topic. “The Emerging Democratic Majority” came out in 2002.
With Hispanic people being the fastest growing demographic in the US, and the percentage of white people shrinking, how could the party with heavy majorities in every minority group ever lose again? With such a heavy majority of the youth vote against George W Bush, how could Republicans ever win again once those people come of age?
The answer is, parties and platforms change. Agreed, George W Bush couldn’t get elected in the modern America. Look what happened to Jeb. But the modern Republican Party has shifted more working-class populist and some of that growing share of Hispanic vote has shifted towards them.