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Cake day: July 9th, 2023

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  • Both parties are the same power structure.

    Sure, but one side is currently on a zealous charge trying to extend it far harder than the other.

    Organise in opposition

    Would be a fine idea if the party who would have power in the interim were not basically religious zealots hell bent on destroying everything that previous movements have built up. By the time the Dems had reorganised and rebuilt there would be little left for them to govern.

    all methods to produce results including but not limited to; protest, strike action, lawfare, self-governance, direct action, sabotage, and armed resistance.

    These are all good methods for getting noticed, yes. The question is, do you want to get your way because you made more noise than the other side, or because enough people believe in the same thing as you? The former is precarious, as it can be rolled back in the same way. the latter is more enduring. Maybe you can do the first and then back it up with the second, I’m not sure. Protests of various sorts can be useful to gain recognition and get people to think about your cause, but only up to the point you inconvenience them too much. After that you start to see opinions hardening against the cause.

    And you can have extra points if you can name some brought about purely by electoralism that did not include either withholding or threatening to withold votes, since that’s the hill you’ve decided to die on.

    I think I’ve been unclear somewhere, as withholding votes is what I’ve been saying everywhere, but do it in a coordinated and widespread way, not ad-hoc as people seem to be suggesting here. A small number of votes withheld without a clear explanation to the candidates as to why, and enough time for them to incorporate that into their strategy, says nothing to them and risks handing power to a worse and less controllable option. Get enough people together that their votes are actually consequential and have everyone contact the candidates explaining what they need to do to win their votes, then you’ll have a reliable effect.


  • Yes, you are. And the elected president is the head of the party.

    The elected president is typically the head of one of the parties, yes, although I haven’t seen anything saying they must be (please let me know if there is a rule about that). However, they are separate to the party, being the executive rather than legislative branch. The way I see it, this year’s election is uniquely evil, in that on the one hand you have Biden and on the other hand you have trump, who has stated his desire to be a dictator, and who wants to take all the worst positions the current administration have taken and make them even more extreme, whilst also stripping even more rights. Neither option is good, one is worse. Given that one of the two will be the next president of the United States of America, I would advocate for the less extreme one.

    It has no effect without the threat of combined removal of votes

    Yes, that’s what I am saying. Apologies if I wasn’t clear this time. Without that, no matter how big a movement is it’ll be ineffective. However unless it is large enough the removal of votes will either achieve nothing or be counter productive by letting a worse option in.

    You assert this repeatedly but never offer what those requirements are or how to achieve them.

    As I mentioned to someone else, look at the margin between the first and second place parties, and you probably need a movement of that order of magnitude to be able to swing the election. Then you need all of those people making contact with their representative or potential representative and laying out exactly what is needed to get their vote. It’s not complicated, just tough to get enough people to agree with you.

    But I can’t vote for those candidates because I have to vote for the supposedly ‘lesser evil’ of the two parties that oppose it, right? That’s your original premise here.

    As I said, initially we were talking about the presidential election, where I would say that ensuring trump doesn’t get in is vital. Swinging one or both houses to the Dems would also derisk trump being president. If you support an issue, say voting systems, you need enough people with you to ensure you are heard. Deciding to withhold your vote at a late stage, without explaining to the candidates exactly why will achieve nothing.





  • heroic resistance of the Palestinian people and their allies

    Absolutely.

    If the blue nazis support for domestic minority rights were anything more than kayfabe they would recognize the supreme court for the fundamentaly illegitimate institution that it is and break its power with court packing, jurisdiction stripping and impeachments.

    Maybe I’m insufficiently cynical, but I see that more as them just being woefully ineffectual, rather than a conspiracy. I recognise that the result is largely indistinguishable, but it means there is a chance to fix it given time and effort. Said effort would be strongly resisted unless it came from a large enough block of the electorate that doing so meant certainly losing your seat. Anything less than that is either ignorable, or if it does flip the seat, does so without presenting a lesson others can learn from.



  • So what’s the window between presidential, state, and local elections, plus run-offs, school districts, sherriff, and all the others that ‘is the time’?

    The presidential elections, along with the other positions elected then, are the highest stakes, so it’s probably best not to try to upset them. That means starting in December and going for the next 3.5 years or so. This particular election seems more risky than most because of trump’s position on may things, including his stated desire to be a dictator and his intention to fully support the worst things the dems have done and push them even further. Were it almost anyone else with the republican nomination I’d be less concerned.

    And how many do you need to convince?

    What’s the margin between the first and second place parties? You probably need to convince around that number of the leading parties voters. It’s a straight numbers matter. Figure out how many are needed to swing the election, and that’s how many you need to convince.

    Half the voters for an entire party in a matter of weeks, every four years? Does this seem realistic to you?

    It’s probably a lot less than that. As I said, it only needs to be enough to swing the election away from them. As to time frame, it needs to be all the time, not just for a few weeks. The party/candidate needs enough time to react to your demands and change it’s position without scaring away the rest of it’s voters.

    And why would the party actually respond to those demands if you could organise the magic number of people in the exact right window of time?

    They’d have to respond if they wanted to win the next election. Ultimately politicians need to keep wining to stay in their job. Imperil that and they have to listen or lose their job.


  • The uncommitted campaign was in April.

    Yes, which is ‘fairly recently’. The good news is it did have some effect, which rather illustrates what I’m saying. Enough voters speaking in one voice, in a way that doesn’t cause the republicans to have more power, works.

    People have been protesting, organising, and in some cases taking legal action for ten months now since October 7th.

    They have, yes, and I take my hat off to them for spending that energy doing it, but there aren’t enough of them. Until there are enough that their numbers make an electoral difference, all the protesting achieves is ‘awareness’ amongst the electorate. Given enough time and dedication that might be enough to swell the numbers to the point they have an effect, but until that point politicians are going to carry on. As I mentioned to someone else, the opinion polls I’ve found regarding American’s view of the conflict suggest about the same number of people see it as genocide as those who don’t, which is utterly horrifying, but explains why politicians are sticking to their path. When those numbers change, so will the political response.

    How do you force a party to do something it’s diametrically opposed to while insisting you and everyone will always support them

    You don’t. You, as a large enough group, make that support contingent on conditions being met. The issue is that if your group is too small, it has no effect, but if it’s bigger than that, is ignored, and withholds its votes, it hands victory to the opposing party, which is likely to be detrimental to that group, so the group needs to be large enough that it can’t be ignored. Gathering that size of group, coordinating them and getting the message across is a large undertaking, but without it you’ve got little chance of having an effect.



  • OK, I agree with almost everything you’ve said there, but the last bit ‘I hope they crash and burn so they can learn their lesson. Serve the people or get out of the way of people who will!’ fails to consider the damage that will occur while they’re learning said lesson. You talk about things like LGBT rights being under attack, and abortion being gone, but that is all from the (far)right party, racism also seems to be worst amongst that portion too. Giving the Dems a kicking, though richly deserved, just gives free reign to those who would go further, faster and strip even more rights long before a reformed and recovered Dem party could do anything about it. I think the changes will need to be made ‘live’, as it were, which will entail them having enough power to curtail the republicans whilst also listening to a large enough group of voters telling them how to change.






  • I don’t see how this is responsive to the point that Democrats should have sat down with Ginsburg and tried to convince her to retire. There’s no excuse for them not only not doing that, but doing the exact opposite.

    I think there were enough factions that it’s hard to say Democrats as a whole did anything. I’m pretty sure some did sit down and try to convince her to retire, but then I suspect others told her she was too special and should hold on, which speaks to your next point.

    Sure, and the answer starts with coming to terms with the fact that the Democratic Party needs to be replaced, or at least changed so radically that it’s unrecognizable.

    That sounds like a good goal. In your opinion, how do we go about achieving it without leaving the country to the mercy of the republicans in the mean time?

    genocide is not lesser evil

    Whilst I do understand your point, I would say that magnitude plays a part too. The fact we even have to consider that is appalling.





  • The president is a bit of a special case, in that there’s one of them, and of the two candidates one has said he wants to be a dictator, whilst also enthusiastically supporting all the worst positions the Dems have taken and wanting to make them more extreme. So, judged between those two one is clearly a less bad option. I’m certainly not saying either is a good option, but that’s the current situation, and anything that increases the risk of trump getting in, especially with a republican majority in one or both houses, is surely a bad idea.

    Down-ticket, individuals withholding their votes will have minimal effect teaching them anything. It has to be a large enough groundswell that it can’t be ignored as it’ll effect the outcome. Changes start with the electorate, not with politicians. Get enough people of one mind and then things will change. That is neither easy nor quick to do though, and I don’t see it happening before November.