• 18 Posts
  • 180 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 8th, 2023

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  • The criticisms of these polls is broadly correct. But I’m not sure I agree with the conclusion.

    Nate Silver was bitterly attacked for weeks before the 2016 election for giving Trump a 20% chance of winning when most other (mainstream) pundits were giving him ~1%. It was bizarre to watch; they might as well have straight up told people not to bother voting.

    It was Dem complacency that lost that election and thinkpieces like this do little but encourage more complacency. Trump fans will turn out. Biden-haters will turn out. People who would otherwise be holding their nose and voting for Biden will only turn out if they believe it matters. As they would have in 2016 if they’d known Trump had a realistic chance of winning.

    Dems should be thanking biased Republican pollsters because Biden will only win this if a big chunk of eligible voters realise that they’re going to have to hold their nose and vote for him.















  • The drivers in these two cases were 60 and 23, respectively. I’m not sure why this rant fits here?

    Every driver was once a new driver. They all have to learn to drive on real roads. There’s no way around that. The stickers are intended to encourage other cars to not harass them in situations they may already be finding stressful. They exist precisely because not-new drivers are often impatient and are prone to making the situation worse because of it. If the stickers raise your blood pressure, take a step back and give yourself a good talking to.

    Driver training should be better, of course. A compulsory 1000 miles by bicycle and another 2000 on a motorbike before being allowed behind the wheel would be the simplest place to start. Cyclists and motorcyclists make safer drivers.


  • I’m not sure it’s ever legit for the job-hunter to be paying the recruiters. It would normally be the employer.

    A % commission doesn’t give that much incentive to find you the very best job as opposed to the first one that will do. You’re paying them a percentage but they’re looking at the return per hour of work they put in. You’ll come under a lot of pressure to accept the first job on offer simply because that job gives them the best return even if it is a smaller cash amount than the best job they could possibly find (if they put the time in).

    Their incentives do not align well with your incentives. So best avoided, IMO.