nothingcorporate@lemmy.world to World News@lemmy.worldEnglish · 11 months agoWe just survived the hottest 36 days ever recordedlemmy.worldimagemessage-square125fedilinkarrow-up11.16Karrow-down129file-text
arrow-up11.13Karrow-down1imageWe just survived the hottest 36 days ever recordedlemmy.worldnothingcorporate@lemmy.world to World News@lemmy.worldEnglish · 11 months agomessage-square125fedilinkfile-text
Source toot: https://mas.to/@advisorybriefs/110872259818869083 Data source: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
minus-squareTropicalDingdong@lemmy.worldlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up4·edit-211 months agoAny thoughts on how I could incorporate that for a better back of the napkin? (Also, that number is only consider that the number presented was based on 7 independent events, not 34)
minus-squarebloodfoot@programming.devlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up3·11 months agoIf we stick with your 1/44 assumption, we can then assume 50% chance that the following day will also be a record setting day (probably too low still but the math is easier). Your one week estimate would be (1/44)*(1/2)^6.
Any thoughts on how I could incorporate that for a better back of the napkin?
(Also, that number is only consider that the number presented was based on 7 independent events, not 34)
If we stick with your 1/44 assumption, we can then assume 50% chance that the following day will also be a record setting day (probably too low still but the math is easier). Your one week estimate would be (1/44)*(1/2)^6.