• Kaplya@hexbear.net
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    1 year ago

    Inflation is coming down and what remains high is housing rent, but that too is showing signs of decline over the next few months.

    I guarantee you that by election day 2024 Biden is going to win big. People who look at polls today and think that Trump even stands a chance, are in for a big surprise.

      • dragongloss [she/her, they/them]@hexbear.net
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        1 year ago

        Where is that graph someone posted that showed inflation rates falling but had that asterisk that excluded food, rent, (and basically everything else that matters most). Tl;dr inflation is down on all the stuff you can’t afford anyway.

      • Kaplya@hexbear.net
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        1 year ago

        This is wrong. The article you cited has data up until August 2023.

        Asking rent has been declining since September 2023: https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/

        Bureau of Labor Statistics has a 12-month lag when it comes to housing price, which means that elevated rent is still counted in the CPI print. Expect to see CPI continues to fall over the next few months. The current round of inflation is over.

        All the right wing economists who predicted a scary recession throughout 2022 and 2023 were wrong.

        • BodyBySisyphus [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          1 year ago

          You’re getting epicycles confused with long term trends. From your own source:

          Price growth continues to be held down by below-normal demand, increased inventory and a return to seasonal price trends that typically begin dropping in the fall.

          Also from your own source:

          Over that time, rents rose over 11.5 percent, climbing from $1,839 to $2,054 in August 2022. Prices that September were still up 8.83 percent but began a decline — led by decreased demand — which lasted until rents bottomed out at $1,937 in February of this year.

          Bureau of Labor Statistics has a 12-month lag when it comes to housing price, which means that elevated rent is still counted in the CPI print.

          Yeah, that’s how CPI works. Not sure what point you think you’re making.

          Expect to see CPI continues to fall over the next few months. The current round of inflation is over. Expect to see CPI continues to fall over the next few months.

          The CPI isn’t falling, so I’m not sure where you’re seeing a continuation: CPI for all items unchanged in October; shelter up

          Rents are still up from the trough in February and we’d likely expect a similar pattern to happen next year assuming that the typical pattern holds. We’re still above that bottom from earlier this year and to say that a seasonal cooling off represents entry into a longer deflationary cycle is ludicrous. None of that even addresses (again from your own source):

          Over the longer term, rents remain elevated. Since the pandemic, prices have increased by more than 20 percent, adding over $340 to monthly rent bills

          All the right wing economists who predicted a scary recession throughout 2022 and 2023 were wrong.

          Cool?

      • mosiacmango@lemm.ee
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        1 year ago

        This isnt true. Covid caused a sharp drop. Before that the housing crash in 2008 did as well.

        The problem is that rent only went down on cataclysm. Otherwise, it just goes up.

        The further problem is that it likely wont go down much on cataclysm anymore, as investment firms snap up cheap housing and use third parties algorithms to do rent price fixing.

      • Kaplya@hexbear.net
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        1 year ago

        I linked this article in another reply already: https://www.rent.com/research/average-rent-price-report/

        Asking rent has been declining since September 2023. New rental leases have lower rent than a year prior. But because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has a 12-month lag in housing price, the elevated rent is still being counted in the CPI print, but this will continue to drop when new rental leases are being counted over the next few months.

        • MayoPete [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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          1 year ago

          Don’t you love how the price of such a critical part of life is controlled by a so-called “free market”? Maybe we can try a different way of distributing housing and shelter to people?