This was not inevitable. This is a war Israel chose. It could have been prevented. Diplomatic talks were ongoing when the bombers took off for Iran. Israel’s continuing, illegal, unjustified airstrikes are unlikely to achieve their stated aim – permanently ending Tehran’s presumed efforts to build nuclear weapons – and may accelerate it. They must stop now. Likewise, Iran must halt its retaliation immediately and drop its escalatory threats to attack US and UK bases.
This conflict is not limited, as was the case last year, to tit-for-tat exchanges and “precision strikes” on a narrow range of military targets. It’s reached a wholly different level. Potentially nothing is off the table. Civilians are being killed on both sides. Leaders are targets. The rhetoric is out of control. With Israel fighting on several fronts, and Iran’s battered regime backed against a wall, the Middle East is closer than ever to a disastrous conflagration.
Reasons can always be found to go to war. The roots of major conflicts often reach back decades – and this is true of the Israel-Iran vendetta, which dates to the 1979 Islamic revolution. The so-called “shadow war” between the two intensified in recent years. Yet all-out conflict had been avoided, until now. So who is principally to blame for this sudden, unprecedented explosion?
Answer: three angry old men whose behaviour raises serious doubts about their judgment, common sense, motives and even their sanity.
Trump, definitely. He’s at least too dumb to be evil effectively, I shudder to think where Vance would take things if he decides to keep the MAGA line going.
Netanyahu dying would lead to a collapse of his government and a more moderate faction coming to power and probably ending the wars… for now.
I know less about the internal politics of Iran, although this war they didn’t start obviously wouldn’t end.
There is broad support in Israeli society for the ongoing genocide in Gaza. There are polls showing as much (I think one of them showed a rate of 82%). This is not one man’s whim, this is not the will of some small shady elite, this is a consequence of material conditions in Israel. If you don’t take those away, some other face will lead the charge.
Plus I’m not convinced that an assassination of Netanyahu would lead to a different party taking charge. I can’t imagine their system of governance is set up this way. But this is entirely beside the point. The point is that one man’s death doesn’t change history. The allies didn’t win WWII because Hitler killed himself, Hitler killed himself because the allies won WWII.
I did say “for now”.
I’m guessing “genocide” wasn’t in the wording of the poll question, but a two-state solution is just as fringe as a one state solution at this point. The vibe of the average Israeli is that they want Palestinians gone and don’t want to talk or even think about how.
How much do you know about the system?
It’s a party list parliament with a pretty high degree of political fragmentation, comparable to the Netherlands. Netanyahu started with a slim majority propped up by the far-right parties, and his party has polled poorly since they let Oct 7 happen, since security was his main thing. He’s globally famous for his skill holding together coalitions, which he couldn’t do while dead, and it’s pretty typical to hold snap elections after something like that anyway. His successor also wouldn’t need to worry about being thrown in jail for corruption the moment they’re out of office.
Great man theory is indeed dumb, but “leaders don’t change anything even in the short term” is too far in the other direction.