Nomura Securities said about 16 million Chinese people could lose their jobs once the long-term ripple effects of a 50% drop in Chinese exports to the US worked their way through the economy.

I’m guessing this is at least somewhat bullshit of a number. If for no other reason than the fact that China isn’t structured with the intent to abandon large portions of the working class, much less abandon them over things out of their control. Supposing this number was true, China could shift policy focus into helping the companies find other outlets for their production, in order to help the people keep their jobs. Or help the workers find comparable work. And in the meantime, be housing them and still giving them a decent life, unlike the US which would be evicting them and bulldozing their homeless encampments.

In other words, it reads like a statement that is meant to be weighty and scary, but primarily if you believe that China operates with the callousness toward the working class that the US does and since it doesn’t, it isn’t actually that big of a deal in the context of what China is capable of. But all of those exports being pointed elsewhere, or shut down where they can’t be, would be a big deal for the US, who would not have any obvious means to get them back. It’s like they think “sticking it to the Chinese” is somehow going to satiate USians who suddenly wonder why their consumer goods are faltering; and if so, I think they drastically overestimate the pettiness of westerners and underestimate how much they’ve been socialized to soothe societal ills with “consume product.”