Another second or third order effect, depending on exactly how you class it:
Lots of smaller, more specific product segment oriented businesses?
Well, the smart ones ordered a bunch of supply at the end of last year or beginning of this year.
Which means their smaller ware and storehouses are fuller than normal.
Which means they… assumed demand would more or less remain steady.
Which means they took a big expense some months ago, maybe covered it with a loan.
Which means the Q4 24 and Q1 25 quarters are actually pulling forward from the rest of the year, which means we will actually GDP fall from… the baseline prior to that, not after that.
… And if when the economy generally tanks, and demand falls through the floor…
Well, some of them will survive.
But many won’t.
Even though they did the arguably smarter thing, they’ll still have to cut hours, do lay offs, even though the bosses told their workers that they didn’t get a Xmas bonus… so that they wouldn’t have to lay them off or cut their hours.
…
Beyond that, remember when the Ever Given got stuck in the Suez?
And… if you knew anyone in logistics… shit was back ordered and fucked up and people were paying premiuma for priority shipping that was still late, and dock processing times and land tranait schedules were fucked because everyone kept changing plans last minute?
Oh just multiply that level of chaos by 100 or 1000 or so.
Nbd rofl.
…
… As someone with a basic Econ degree, I always find it hilarious how often the highly praised and glorified ‘small business owner’… is actually pretty much ignorant of most basic economics.
What is it, 95% or 99% of small businesses fail within the first year? Just like how 99% of Youtubers or Tiktokers or OnlyFans people make essentially no money?
Nobody bothers to look into any of that though, oh well.
At least succesful Youtubers / streamers are generally aware of the fact they’ve won the lottery.
Small business owners on the other hand are usually the most self righteous ass hats I ever meet: We’re a abusive family business!
As a smaller business, I have two major projects coming out this summer; work for the local school districts and a large remodel. I’ve already ordered all the parts for these jobs in expectation that my parts house will have great supply right now, but it will dwindle off as the projects come due. Major management companies I work with seem aware that prices will increase, but they don’t seem to be accounting for the fact that all of us will be fighting for fewer parts.Fortunately, I have a good relationship with my supplier, and parts of these orders are going to sit on the shelf with my name on them to be picked up in the near future, helping push out my cost.
This is a nightmare, trying to figure out what’s going to run short, but at least we went through it in 2008 as a practice run. Unique to see us do it on purpose.
I can’t really tell too much of the … specifics of your business from what you’ve said, and that may be intentional on your part, which is entirely reasonable, don’t want to doxx yourself…
…but hey, as long as you are at least being realistic with your employees and not promising things you can’t actually promise, you have both my sympathy and empathy.
… I am not even sure you aren’t just a sole proprietorship, given that you never use ‘we’ and always use ‘I’ and ‘the business’ interchangeably.
But I must caution:
Fortunately, I have a good relationship with my supplier, and parts of these orders are going to sit on the shelf with my name on them to be picked up in the near future, helping push out my cost.
I have never met a small business owner who does not say they have a good relationship with their supplier, unless they are actively suing them, or just about to do so.
Usually its more like ‘great’ or ‘outstanding’, or ‘rock solid’ if they really have 5 to 10 year plus history with them, with either 0 hiccups, or very good communication when hiccups are or are about to occur.
… Good luck.
…
I used to do executive level reporting and analysis for a fairly major international logistics middle man coordinator.
I can only imagine my old office now, everyone running around with their hair disheveled, fielding non stop phones ringing off the hook.
That is the ‘de minimis’ exception, for individual orders of less than $800 being exempt from tariffs… which was how SHEIN and Temu and Alibaba/express… sent the US cheap consumer (and also many industrial) goods directly from manufacturers in PRC/HK … this is the closure of that exception or loophole, formally, in the CBP customs rules.
Thats all now at a 120% tariff, so your 40 dollar youtuber plushie is now… 88 dollars.
Starting June 1st, up to 200%, or 120 dollars.
I’ve seen reports that basically everything on SHEIN has roughly tripled in price already, as of this weekend.
… Everyone who has a dropshipping side gig, or merch store or some kind of ‘i use tiktok to sell scented candles i picked out the scents for and designed the container’… yeah thats all pretty much done now.
Another second or third order effect, depending on exactly how you class it:
Lots of smaller, more specific product segment oriented businesses?
Well, the smart ones ordered a bunch of supply at the end of last year or beginning of this year.
Which means their smaller ware and storehouses are fuller than normal.
Which means they… assumed demand would more or less remain steady.
Which means they took a big expense some months ago, maybe covered it with a loan.
Which means the Q4 24 and Q1 25 quarters are actually pulling forward from the rest of the year, which means we will actually GDP fall from… the baseline prior to that, not after that.
… And
ifwhen the economy generally tanks, and demand falls through the floor…Well, some of them will survive.
But many won’t.
Even though they did the arguably smarter thing, they’ll still have to cut hours, do lay offs, even though the bosses told their workers that they didn’t get a Xmas bonus… so that they wouldn’t have to lay them off or cut their hours.
…
Beyond that, remember when the Ever Given got stuck in the Suez?
And… if you knew anyone in logistics… shit was back ordered and fucked up and people were paying premiuma for priority shipping that was still late, and dock processing times and land tranait schedules were fucked because everyone kept changing plans last minute?
Oh just multiply that level of chaos by 100 or 1000 or so.
Nbd rofl.
…
… As someone with a basic Econ degree, I always find it hilarious how often the highly praised and glorified ‘small business owner’… is actually pretty much ignorant of most basic economics.
What is it, 95% or 99% of small businesses fail within the first year? Just like how 99% of Youtubers or Tiktokers or OnlyFans people make essentially no money?
Nobody bothers to look into any of that though, oh well.
At least succesful Youtubers / streamers are generally aware of the fact they’ve won the lottery.
Small business owners on the other hand are usually the most self righteous ass hats I ever meet: We’re a
abusivefamily business!(though there are of course exceptions to that)
As a smaller business, I have two major projects coming out this summer; work for the local school districts and a large remodel. I’ve already ordered all the parts for these jobs in expectation that my parts house will have great supply right now, but it will dwindle off as the projects come due. Major management companies I work with seem aware that prices will increase, but they don’t seem to be accounting for the fact that all of us will be fighting for fewer parts.Fortunately, I have a good relationship with my supplier, and parts of these orders are going to sit on the shelf with my name on them to be picked up in the near future, helping push out my cost.
This is a nightmare, trying to figure out what’s going to run short, but at least we went through it in 2008 as a practice run. Unique to see us do it on purpose.
I can’t really tell too much of the … specifics of your business from what you’ve said, and that may be intentional on your part, which is entirely reasonable, don’t want to doxx yourself…
…but hey, as long as you are at least being realistic with your employees and not promising things you can’t actually promise, you have both my sympathy and empathy.
… I am not even sure you aren’t just a sole proprietorship, given that you never use ‘we’ and always use ‘I’ and ‘the business’ interchangeably.
But I must caution:
I have never met a small business owner who does not say they have a good relationship with their supplier, unless they are actively suing them, or just about to do so.
Usually its more like ‘great’ or ‘outstanding’, or ‘rock solid’ if they really have 5 to 10 year plus history with them, with either 0 hiccups, or very good communication when hiccups are or are about to occur.
… Good luck.
…
I used to do executive level reporting and analysis for a fairly major international logistics middle man coordinator.
I can only imagine my old office now, everyone running around with their hair disheveled, fielding non stop phones ringing off the hook.
Like uh…
https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-3dca7b6?wgt_ref=USDHSCBP_WIDGET_2
That is the ‘de minimis’ exception, for individual orders of less than $800 being exempt from tariffs… which was how SHEIN and Temu and Alibaba/express… sent the US cheap consumer (and also many industrial) goods directly from manufacturers in PRC/HK … this is the closure of that exception or loophole, formally, in the CBP customs rules.
Thats all now at a 120% tariff, so your 40 dollar youtuber plushie is now… 88 dollars.
Starting June 1st, up to 200%, or 120 dollars.
I’ve seen reports that basically everything on SHEIN has roughly tripled in price already, as of this weekend.
… Everyone who has a dropshipping side gig, or merch store or some kind of ‘i use tiktok to sell scented candles i picked out the scents for and designed the container’… yeah thats all pretty much done now.
Fucking yeeeeeehaaaaw, this gonna be a wild ride.