I do agree that in retrospect, the war doesn’t make much sense for Russia. As the article speculates, Putin must have thought that Ukraine was weak enough to be conquered in a matter of weeks, and that the west wouldn’t intervene, since it also didn’t intervene in the case of Crimea and Donbas.
If Russia is seeing any kind of impact, it is a positive one. Their arms industry has strengthen, the West’s sanctions have forced their national bourgeoisie to impose policies that strengthen its economy and also it has isolated the West and increased inflation in Western countries. Prolonging the war is what’s better for Russia, they can play the long game, whereas the West can’t because they cannot produce weapons, ammunition, and so on because they would run dry.
I disagree with this. The west is clearly capable of continuous arms production, thanks to its large and stable imperialist supply chain. It is Russia’s economical potential which seems smaller in comparison.
Paper tiger, read about the West arms production currently and you’ll see every sober military analyst tells you they are in rags.