In a recent interview with far-right U.S. media site Breitbart, Danielle Smith handed Carney a gift-wrapped sledgehammer in the form of an admission that Pierre Poilievre would be "in sync" with Trump.
This is the data from the 2023 provincial election, so I guess that depends on what exodus you’re referring to.
Considering the NDP only needs to flip 6 ridings for an AB majority, and there are at least 6 to flip in Calgary, and that Nenshi is the leader of the NDP now… I think AB will likely see an NDP government next time based on that math alone. Smith being a fucking national embarrassment is just the icing on the cake.
I’m an old guy so I get it. Also there is a narrative about AB at a national level that’s hard to shake.
Flipping (the ideally located) 1380 votes in AB in 2023 would have produced an NDP majority. I don’t think Canada really understands the razors Edge that AB sits on.
It’s possible that transient voters helped push the needle, but the “deconservativeing” of AB may also be a result of the less exciting explanation of urbanization. In general, urban populations trend “left”, and simply put, the share of the total voters (and seats) in urban areas has grown meaningfully since Klien.
Fair enough, I was only there for a handful of years, but did get to see an NDP premier so was happy with that. I was more meaning that the history is there, Alberta has historically supported NDP politics (especially since as I said, the CCF originates there) and the people I know who were born and raised there definitely still do. Alberta’s work/corporate culture I do legitimately miss compared to the bay street one I deal with now, I found it more open and willing to try things for example.
They do not. Please quit with the stereotyping of all of Alberta as being some kind of “Texas North.” Last election was a near 50/50 split between Conservative and NDP, and we’ve had an NDP government in the recent past. Would not be at all surprised if we have an NDP government next election, most Albertans are not fine with foreign governments taking over Canada.
I said it was a near 50/50 split. It happened to fall on the Danielle Smith side of that split, and so she won the election. If just a few percent more had gone NDP then it would have been the other way around. This is fairly typical of how elections work, I’m not sure what more needs to be explained.
The actual popular vote split was 52.63%/44.05%, though of course thanks to first-past-the-post the split of the number of seats in the legislature wasn’t as close as that. The maps look bluer because of the huge sparsely-populated rural regions that voted Conservative, but remember, land doesn’t vote. Those huge sparsely-populated rural regions don’t have as many representatives as the cities.
I’m not asking anyone to “have faith.” I’m just asking you to recognize that statements like:
Albertans remain fine with her election interference and helping foreign govts take over Canada
Are an inaccurate and frankly downright offensive stereotype. Albertans are not “fine” with helping foreign governments take over Canada. That statement is tarring an entire population with a vile accusation.
The fact that we have no legal method of stopping her doesn’t mean we’re fine with what she’s doing.
We hold elections every once in a while, like other provinces. It’s unfortunate there isn’t one in the immediate future, but eventually there will be one and right now I’m not liking her odds.
I’d imagine most of Alberta is left leaning like the rest of the country and similarly has their left votes split over multiple parties, making it a lot easier for conservatives to win. Same problem we all have really. It just takes a really small nudge of conservatism to tip the scales
Nope, there’s currently only really two parties. In fact, vote splitting between the UCP and Greens might actually have given the NDP some seats.
About 52 percent wanted the UCP and about 44 percent wanted the NDP.
Since we’re in the doldrums between elections I don’t imagine a whole lot of polling is being done right now, so no idea when that will update. But even with the numbers as they are, it’s really not bad - NDP got 44% last election so 41% is still in the same ballpark, and the NDP has a new leader that obviously hasn’t done any campaigning. He’s a former mayor of Calgary and Calgary’s the battleground that the election hinged on last time around.
They do not, and this is an offensive stereotype. Half of Albertans didn’t even vote for her, and I’m sure a substantial portion of those who did are not “fine” with her helping foreign governments take over Canada.
According to a recent poll 12% of Albertans would “definitely consider” joining the US. Sounds bad, yeah? But Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario come right behind at 11%. Should we also say “Ontarians are fine with helping foreign governments take over Canada”?
And yet Albertans remain fine with her election interference and helping foreign govts take over Canada.
Statistically speaking, Albertans are as likely to vote NDP in a provincial election as people from BC are.
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This is the data from the 2023 provincial election, so I guess that depends on what exodus you’re referring to.
Considering the NDP only needs to flip 6 ridings for an AB majority, and there are at least 6 to flip in Calgary, and that Nenshi is the leader of the NDP now… I think AB will likely see an NDP government next time based on that math alone. Smith being a fucking national embarrassment is just the icing on the cake.
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I’m an old guy so I get it. Also there is a narrative about AB at a national level that’s hard to shake.
Flipping (the ideally located) 1380 votes in AB in 2023 would have produced an NDP majority. I don’t think Canada really understands the razors Edge that AB sits on.
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Shit, the NDP via the CCF originates in Calgary, IMO Notley was premier because of Albertans, not because of us who were only there for a few years.
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It’s possible that transient voters helped push the needle, but the “deconservativeing” of AB may also be a result of the less exciting explanation of urbanization. In general, urban populations trend “left”, and simply put, the share of the total voters (and seats) in urban areas has grown meaningfully since Klien.
Could be a lil’ of both, too.
Fair enough, I was only there for a handful of years, but did get to see an NDP premier so was happy with that. I was more meaning that the history is there, Alberta has historically supported NDP politics (especially since as I said, the CCF originates there) and the people I know who were born and raised there definitely still do. Alberta’s work/corporate culture I do legitimately miss compared to the bay street one I deal with now, I found it more open and willing to try things for example.
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They do not. Please quit with the stereotyping of all of Alberta as being some kind of “Texas North.” Last election was a near 50/50 split between Conservative and NDP, and we’ve had an NDP government in the recent past. Would not be at all surprised if we have an NDP government next election, most Albertans are not fine with foreign governments taking over Canada.
How do you explain Danielle Smith then? I know the citites go NDP but most of AB is conservative.
I said it was a near 50/50 split. It happened to fall on the Danielle Smith side of that split, and so she won the election. If just a few percent more had gone NDP then it would have been the other way around. This is fairly typical of how elections work, I’m not sure what more needs to be explained.
The actual popular vote split was 52.63%/44.05%, though of course thanks to first-past-the-post the split of the number of seats in the legislature wasn’t as close as that. The maps look bluer because of the huge sparsely-populated rural regions that voted Conservative, but remember, land doesn’t vote. Those huge sparsely-populated rural regions don’t have as many representatives as the cities.
I’ll have faith in AB again if you guys vote in Nenshi next time.
I’m not asking anyone to “have faith.” I’m just asking you to recognize that statements like:
Are an inaccurate and frankly downright offensive stereotype. Albertans are not “fine” with helping foreign governments take over Canada. That statement is tarring an entire population with a vile accusation.
The same thing we do to Murcans. The all need to burn because they voted for Trump.
What can AB feasibly do about Marlaina right now though?
The fact that we have no legal method of stopping her doesn’t mean we’re fine with what she’s doing.
We hold elections every once in a while, like other provinces. It’s unfortunate there isn’t one in the immediate future, but eventually there will be one and right now I’m not liking her odds.
I’d imagine most of Alberta is left leaning like the rest of the country and similarly has their left votes split over multiple parties, making it a lot easier for conservatives to win. Same problem we all have really. It just takes a really small nudge of conservatism to tip the scales
Is that what’s up?
Nope, there’s currently only really two parties. In fact, vote splitting between the UCP and Greens might actually have given the NDP some seats. About 52 percent wanted the UCP and about 44 percent wanted the NDP.
Unfortunately… https://338canada.com/alberta/
Hopefully though once a more recent poll is run we’ll see UCP support collapse. And it’s still about 2 and a half years until the next election.
Yeah, I’m skeptical about those numbers. They’re from February 9, and that’s about when Trump’s 51st-state bullshit first started making headlines. Nobody would have known what Smith’s reaction would be yet.
Since we’re in the doldrums between elections I don’t imagine a whole lot of polling is being done right now, so no idea when that will update. But even with the numbers as they are, it’s really not bad - NDP got 44% last election so 41% is still in the same ballpark, and the NDP has a new leader that obviously hasn’t done any campaigning. He’s a former mayor of Calgary and Calgary’s the battleground that the election hinged on last time around.
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They do not, and this is an offensive stereotype. Half of Albertans didn’t even vote for her, and I’m sure a substantial portion of those who did are not “fine” with her helping foreign governments take over Canada.
According to a recent poll 12% of Albertans would “definitely consider” joining the US. Sounds bad, yeah? But Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario come right behind at 11%. Should we also say “Ontarians are fine with helping foreign governments take over Canada”?
Smith herself was a 6th round pick.